FIFA World Cup 2026 — Group C · 20 Jun · 00:30 UTC
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🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti
Over 3.5Market Over/Under · Line 3.5 · Odds at publish 1.85 · Stake 0.5u · Closing 2.20 CLV −15.9%
The thesis — The Curator
Brazil name their full first-choice attack — Vinicius Junior, Raphinha and Paquetá behind Cunha, with Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães controlling midfield — against a Haiti side set up 5-4-1 to absorb pressure. The rotation worry is off the table: this is a strongest-XI Brazil chasing goals at the World Cup. With the fair total around 3.6, Over 3.5 is the reasoned lean. Main risk is the classic minnow-bus scenario where Haiti hold for long spells and the goals arrive late or just fall short — so a confident lean, not a lock.
Result
FT 3–0
Raw AH outcome: Loss
−0.50u
Badges count half-wins as WON and half-losses as LOST. Units P/L keeps the real Asian-handicap math.
CLV = closing line value — positive means the pick beat the market.
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