Spain vs Cape Verde

The thesis — The Curator

Spain confirmed without both first-choice wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams (hamstring injuries) — the primary wide outlets driving 1v1 chance creation and cutbacks. Attack collapses inward into slower central buildup against a Cape Verde deep low block. Reduced Spanish penetration plus a bus-parking opponent with minimal attacking output drags both xG and expected total down hard. Base-case scorelines 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 all land comfortably under. Quarter unit only — Spain's elite depth could pile on late if Cape Verde tire.